Forecasting for Strategic Impact: A Two-Part Series-Session One Recording: Designing a Strategic Forecasting Universe: A Data-Informed Path to Actionable Insight

Session One Recording: Designing a Strategic Forecasting Universe: A Data-Informed Path to Actionable Insight

Video Transcription

Video Summary

Jacob Estes and Palak Vohra from the University of Chicago present the first of a two-part webinar series focused on strategic forecasting in higher education fundraising. Palak, Senior Associate Director of Analytics, outlines the importance of forecasting beyond mere numbers—emphasizing the need for context, actionable insights, and alignment with institutional goals. Effective forecasting combines science (data-driven models) and art (stakeholder engagement), requiring early and ongoing collaboration to tailor forecasts for different audiences, including finance teams and senior leadership.<br /><br />Their methodology differentiates between lower, stable gift bands, forecasted using historical giving trends and ARIMA time series models, and higher, more volatile gift bands, projected based on open proposal pipelines and donor behavior. Long-term forecasting (5–10 years) incorporates scenario planning—conservative, baseline, and ambitious projections—with added attention to external economic indicators and unpredictable black swan events, which are communicated contextually.<br /><br />Communication strategies include tailoring dashboards for non-technical stakeholders using clear visuals and storytelling, focusing on insights linked directly to decision-making. The University of Chicago leverages tools like R, Python, and Tableau, emphasizing clean data infrastructure and cross-team collaboration. Upcoming sessions will explore practical implementation and dynamic visualization of forecasts. Audience questions addressed segmentation of giving, departmental campaign context, donor affinity indicators, bridging gaps between fundraising and finance, stewardship metrics, and the role of libraries in forecasting.

Keywords

strategic forecasting

higher education fundraising

data-driven models

ARIMA time series

scenario planning

donor behavior

cross-team collaboration

data visualization

fundraising analytics