Forecasting for Strategic Impact: A Two-Part Series-Session Two Recording: The Art an Science of Forecasting: Connecting Strategy, Data, and Action

Video Transcription

Video Summary

In this detailed webinar, Palak Vora, Senior Associate Director of Financial Analytics at the University of Chicago, presents the second part of a two-part series on strategic forecasting for fundraising. The session focuses on the practical application of forecasting techniques introduced in the first webinar, emphasizing the “how” of turning predictions into actionable insights.<br /><br />Vora outlines a comprehensive forecasting framework starting with meticulous data preparation, underscoring the importance of clean, relevant, and properly structured data. She stresses collaboration with data management teams to ensure data quality, removal of duplicates, handling of outliers (such as large volatile gifts), and formatting data for models like ARIMA used in time series forecasting.<br /><br />The talk covers selecting forecasting tools based on dataset size, complexity, and team expertise, mentioning Salesforce for CRM, R for ARIMA modeling, Python for automation, and Tableau for data visualization. Vora shares specific forecasting practices at her institution, including separate methods for stable, lower-level gifts using historical trends, and for volatile, high-value gifts using the open proposal pipeline with confidence-weighted adjustments.<br /><br />Long-term projections (5-10 years) are provided as three scenarios—conservative, baseline, and ambitious—incorporating donor demographics, external economic factors, and institutional changes. The webinar then showcases Tableau dashboards that communicate forecasts with layered visuals and narratives to engage stakeholders and inform strategic decisions.<br /><br />Finally, Vora discusses challenges like overcomplication, data overload, and resistance to change, offering tips such as starting simple, ongoing stakeholder engagement, and piloting models before full rollout. The session concludes with a Q&A addressing detailed questions about data completeness, deduplication, updating narratives, and donor behavioral modeling. Overall, this webinar equips participants with actionable insights for building robust, strategic fundraising forecasts aligned with organizational goals.

Keywords

strategic forecasting

fundraising analytics

data preparation

ARIMA modeling

time series forecasting

Salesforce CRM

Python automation

Tableau visualization

donor demographics

forecasting challenges