Forecasting for Strategic Impact: A Two-Part Series-Session One Slides: Designing a Strategic Forecasting Universe: A Data-Informed Path to Actionable Insight

Session One Slides: Designing a Strategic Forecasting Universe: A Data-Informed Path to Actionable Insight

Pdf Summary

This presentation by Palak Vora, Senior Associate Director of Analytics Advancement at the University of Chicago, outlines a strategic approach to forecasting aimed at generating actionable insights to support institutional decision-making. Drawing on extensive experience across industries, Vora emphasizes forecasting as a leadership tool that goes beyond numbers—facilitating proactive, data-informed planning aligned with organizational goals, particularly in fundraising, engagement, and resource allocation contexts.<br /><br />Key steps for aligning forecasting with institutional strategy include early stakeholder engagement to build trust and shared ownership; contextualizing projections to reflect team priorities and goals; making forecasts actionable by highlighting pathways, risks, and opportunities; and fostering cross-functional collaboration.<br /><br />The forecasting methodology separates "lower" (stable) gift bands, based on long-term historical trends and monthly seasonality, from "higher" (volatile) bands, derived from active proposals and donor behavior, discounted according to confidence levels. Scenario planning incorporates probability distributions and external economic indicators to model uncertainty, offering conservative, baseline, and best-case projections. The framework also accounts for unexpected “black swan” events through regular research team updates, distinguishing short-term noise from lasting trends.<br /><br />Data storytelling and visualization are crucial for effective communication: presentations should be audience-tailored, start with key insights, tell a clear narrative, use appropriate chart types, highlight key findings, avoid jargon and clutter, and connect data directly to decisions. <br /><br />The infrastructure supporting forecasting includes clean, integrated data systems, ARIMA time series models via RStudio, Python automation, and Tableau dashboards. Crucially, a culture of data-informed decision-making and iterative feedback is promoted.<br /><br />In summary, Vora’s approach combines rigorous quantitative methods with strategic communication and stakeholder engagement to deliver forecasts that are not only statistically sound but actionable, aligned with institutional strategy, and responsive to uncertainty.

Keywords

forecasting

institutional decision-making

data-informed planning

fundraising strategy

stakeholder engagement

scenario planning

data storytelling

ARIMA models

Python automation

Tableau dashboards